Editorials
Global Outlook for the World Economy in 2012
Michael Kain (Labour International correspondent for South America, and the Caribbean. Brasilia, Brazil., March 2012)
The outlook for the Global economy for 2012 does not look good, and the Head of the International Monetary fund Christine Lagarde has said that the outlook for the global economy in 2012 is gloomy, and no country is immune from this. It looks like South American economies will face a bumpy ride in 2012, and that Europe will experience a mild recession, the USA economy will continue to recover and grow. However, there will be uncertainty regarding the US Presidential Election in 2012. The financial markets respond positively to economic and political uncertainty, but are volatile and react badly to political and financial uncertainty.
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Global Economic Forum and the Global Social Forum
Michael Kain (Labour International correspondent for South America, and the Caribbean. Brasilia, Brazil., March 2012)
The World Economic Forum met in the holiday resort of Davos in Switzerland amid fears of a European recession pulling down economic growth for the rest of the world economy, including big emerging economies. The annual meeting of the global elite of political leaders, heads of state, business leaders, international financiers, central bankers. The focus of the conference this year was on the Euro crisis, growing economic and social inequality under modern capitalism, and on how to fix capitalism.
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Social media and social action — global lessons from the summer of 2011
Jeremy Millard (Labour International correspondent for Scandinavia and Denmark, January 2012)
Many commentators have claimed that somehow new social media, like Facebook and Twitter, and new mobile phone networks, especially when used by smart phones, have directly lead to social action and protest seen in many parts of the world today. The reality is that this is at best an oversimplification and at worst highly misleading. Social media are transforming how social action is conceived and carried out, but they do not cause social action which derives from more fundamental conditions in society. This paper examines a number of vignettes of social action using social media from around the world, both inside and outside the Middle East including the UK, especially during the summer of 2011. It also highlights their similarities and contrasts, as well as some tentative conclusions about the role of social media in social action.
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Britain and the Changing World
Michael Kain (Labour International correspondent for South America, and the Caribbean. Brasilia, Brazil., December 2011)
Britain still has a very useful and key role to play in the world. Britain is a medium-sized power, but still punches above its weight on the global economic and political stage. We should not believe that Britain and Europe are destined for economic and political decline, a new set of policies can turn around the British economic situation and we can be on the path of economic recovery and sustainable economic growth and a green economy. Thankfully, Britain’s economy is not tied to the straitjacket of the euro, but Britain cannot be indifferent to the plight of our euro partners as our economic and political future is linked. It looks likely that a more flexible and two-speed Europe may emerge, even that the euro will be born as a hard euro area without weak economies like Greece, or possibly Italy or Spain. A future Labour Government could play to Britain’s strong economic, political, sporting, and cultural strengths and links. Britain can act as a bridge between the USA and the English-speaking Commonwealth and Europe, and the so-called emerging or rising economic and political powers, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
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Greek Tragedy in Europe and the Eurozone’s Grand Plan, and Argentina celebrates Cristina Kirchner’s big election victory
Michael Kain (LI Brazil, November 2011)
The European Union and the Eurozone faces its worst ever economic and financial crisis since its foundation. At its epicenter is Greece whose economy only represents 3% of the total Eurozone economy. Greece has huge debts which threatened to lead to a loss of confidence through Euroland bring down with its other bigger economies like Italy, which has 120% debt compared with the size of its Gross Domestic Product. The Euro leaders met in Brussels and put forward a bold plan, which the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed with, and then the following week said he would put the tough austerity measures to a referendum. This made the European leaders attending the G 20 meeting in Cannes very angry. French President Sarkozy said that if Greece rejected the bailout plan they would be out of the Eurozone, and would receive no further bailout money. President Sarkozy was strongly backed by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was attacked on all sides, and his own Finance Minister opposed the proposed referendum on the EU/IMF bailout plan. The European political leaders felt he showed bad faith, as by supporting a national referendum on the economic rescue plan, which would be rejected by Greek voters, as he had only a short time supported the terms of the bailout which meant a 50% cut in Greece’s debt, and more bailout money. They felt that Greek Prime Minister Papandreou showed bad faith, and was playing politics at the cost of his own country’s economy.
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BRICs and the world economy
Michael Kain (LI Brazil, October 2011)
The BRICs economies have become increasingly important to the global economy, world trade and finance in recent years, especially since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. The BRICs economies are also affected by the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis; it is hurting their economies cutting their economic growth rates, leading to a de-acceleration of their economies and will lead to a rise in unemployment eventually. In the case of Brazil the economic growth rate of the Brazilian economy for 2011 it is estimated will be halved to 3.5% compared to 2010. This is a major reason why Brazil’s President Dilma and former President Lula have called on Europe’s political leaders to take unified and decisive action to resolve the current Euro debt crisis, and the threat of a Greek default. It can push the global economy into a severe crisis, and world recession. Even China with its strong high growth economy and large foreign exchange reserves can be badly hurt, as the European Union is China’s largest export market. This is a contributing factor in the BRICs countries offering to help their European economic and trade partners. China has promised to shore up the Euro by buying up government debt of countries like Spain, and Italy.
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The XVIII Forum on Brazil and the European Union under a New Global Order
Michael Kain (LI Brazil, June 2011)
This forum met in Brasilia on 15th and 16th of June 2011 in the Chamber of Deputies on 15th of June, and the Manhattan Plaza Hotel on 16th of June. It is an important annual event. The conference was opened by several important Brazilian political figures such as Senator Wilson Santiago, the Second Vice-President of the Senate; Federal Deputy Eduardo Ponte, the Second Vice-President of the Chamber of Deputies, Federal Deputy Sebastiao Bala Rocha, President of the Brazil-European Union Parliamentary Group who has played a leading role in relations between Brazil and the European Union and Peter Fischer-Bollin, the Representative of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Brazil. Other speakers at the opening ceremony included Ambassador Ana Paula Zacarias, the Head of the European Union Delegation in Brazil, and Professor Estevao C. Rezende, Director of the Institute of Human Resources of the University of Brasilia (UnB). The forum was supported by the Brazilian Senate, the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, the European Union, the University of Brasilia, and organized by the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
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Prospects for the European Economy, 2011
Michael Kain (LI Brazil, 27 June 2011)
2011 could be a make or break year for the European Union and the Eurozone economies. It seems that the bigger strong economies like Germany are expected to show strong economic growth rates. Germany which is the European Union’s biggest economy showed strong export driven growth and a decrease in unemployment, fuelled by strong export expansion to emerging economies such as China, and this trend can be expected to continue. However, the smaller weaker peripheral economies of the Eurozone are expected to experience severe austerity and budget spending cuts, and rising unemployment. Estonia with its small economy and population joined the Euro on 1st of January this year, and managed to follow all the EU’ s economic criteria, including a budget deficit below 3% joined the Eurozone as its newest and 19th member, and gave the Euro zone a brief temporary vote of confidence.
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Defeat of Alternative Voting System in the national referendum held on May 5, a big Labour recovery, and heavy Liberal Democrat losses throughout the UK
Michael Kain (LI Brazil, 22 May 2011)
The election results after May 5 national referendum on changing the historic British “first past the post” system showed a resounding defeat for those trying to change the current first past the post system. The British electorate spoke and clearly rejected the AV system in every region of the United Kingdom. The No vote obtained 67.9% of the total vote, while the Yes votes gained only 32.1% of the total votes, a huge defeat. The No vote swept the board throughout the UK, and won in every region.
The May 5 elections saw a resurgence and recovery in the fortunes of the Labour Party in both England council elections, and election to the Welsh Assembly. Labour obtained a higher percentage of the vote with 37% of the vote compared with the Conservative total vote of 35%. The Liberal Democrats were heavily defeated in the English council election and lost over half their council seats. The Liberal Democrats also did very badly in the elections for members of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, and in the elections for the Welsh Assembly. The Conservative Party did better than the Liberal Democrats in the council elections in England and held a steady position.
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Sleaze and ineptitude mark this government right from the start
Jeremy Millard (LI Denmark, 3 September 2010)
It’s amazing – no shocking – how quickly this new government has succumbed to sleaze and ineptitude from the very beginning. Much more quickly than previous governments. John Major had lamentable problems towards the end of his tattered premiership. And we must admit that there were some issues during Labour’s very last days, though nothing in comparison with the mid 90s. But, Cameron’s team are setting new records in arrogance, incompetence and highly questionable behaviour.
Even the Lib-Dems have quickly shown their dark side, despite many of us thinking that, even though we don’t support their policies, there was much to admire in their rectitude. A Commons’ select committee has already made damning criticism of Nick Clegg’s refusal to allow adequate scrutiny of his political reform Bills. David Laws had to resign because of dodgy accommodation claims on expenses, and even the supposed saintly Vince Cable has remained loudly silent over his refusal to condemn those coalition economic policies he ranted against during the election campaign.Clegg & Con (Steve Bell, Guardian)
The Tories are ten times worse. Just a very few examples. Passing quickly over the continuing scandals of the non-dom status of many of their top donors, we now have Number 10’s chief spin-doctor Andy Coulson being again directly accused by two of his erstwhile journalists of authorizing phone-hacking whilst editor at the News of the World. The sorry saga of William Hague’s poor judgment about his appointment of an inexperienced adviser in the Foreign Office is more likely to arouse sympathy than condemnation. Not so the way Michael Gove (the worst Education Secretary ever) has blundered his way through his first three months, and to cap it all will now be forced to admit that his earlier confident claim that over 700 so-called ‘free-schools’ will be in place by September 2011 will in fact number only 16.
This government is rapidly undoing years of achievement in education and health, moving the country towards huge postcode lottery differences and massive increases in inequality. Once Labour’s leadership election is out of the way, we all know what we have to do.
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The real cause of this financial crisis
Jeremy Millard (LI Denmark, 8 June 2010)
It’s astounding peoples’ short memories. How did this crisis occur? Why have so many governments massive deficits? Although there are a few exceptions, this was generally not the result of government profligacy or waste. Governments across the developed economies have massively bailed out banks, financial services and other parts of the private sector. Two years ago, Gordon Brown led this global effort and received universal praise from fellow statesmen and women, from the OECD, IMF and others, without which many economies would have come crashing down. Our situation today would be dire indeed. This is Gordon’s real legacy.
Now the Tories are saying the deficits are due to years of Labour’s bad economic management and recklessness, whilst the new stance of the LibDems beggars belief given they generally supported Labour’s approach to fighting the financial crisis. Most neutral observers agree that if Tory policies had been followed over the last two years, Britain’s economy would now be in ruins. Yet now the Tories are promising to cut fast and deep, blaming the public sector for all our woes, when it’s clear the reverse is the case.
At a time, when governments need to re-assert the importance of their role and of public services, reappraise what markets can and cannot do, develop better and (yes) often tighter regulation, the Tories are arguing the opposite. The wrong lessons of the last few years are being drawn. Problem is, thanks to their LibDem poodles, the Tories are likely to put into practice this strange, illogical recipe. Of course, the Labour government made economic mistakes over the last 13 years, alongside most other governments around the world of both left and right. There was too little good regulation and insufficiently progressive taxation – whilst the Tories, remember, were always arguing for even less regulation and less taxation. But to now suggest that the public sector should take the blame and all the hits is a travesty of common sense, and worst of all, will only compound our economic and social problems. Clearly, Labour is still the best answer to Britain’s problems.
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Editor’s note: you may also be interested in the Europeans-for-financial-reform coalition:
“In response to the current crisis, governments around the world have stabilized their economies with taxpayers’ money. Now, the financial sector should pick up the bill! A global financial transaction tax of only 0.05% could yield revenue of about 1% of world GDP per year. Progressive forces have been advocating the creation of a global financial transaction tax for decades. At the European summit of June 17, EU leaders have put the transaction tax back on G20 agenda. The next G20 summit will take place in Toronto on June 26-27. Let’s remind them: we want a global financial transaction tax!“
